Adam Winter

kind of tired of posting bad beat news. Basically I ran worse today than yesterday. ev bb/100 = 43.01 actually bb/100 = -1.15 over 2200 hands. I was playing small mtts and 2.50/180s.

Managed some nice wins to actually win some money. Yet if my luck was just “even” I would have won about $200 I think, if not more. Just mind-numbingly frustrating.

I think hands like this piss me off the absolute most:

marianajose posts small blind [$300.00 USD].
mark marc78 posts big blind [$600.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to NuklearWintr [ Jh As ]
törsten folds
heete brei calls [$600.00 USD]
NuklearWintr raises [$8397.00 USD]
stripytiger folds
36vad36 folds
Limitless180 folds
marianajose folds
mark marc78 folds
heete brei calls [$7330.00 USD]
NuklearWintr wins $467.00 USD
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4h, Kc, 5d ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8c ]
** Dealing River ** [ Ts ]
heete brei shows [Td, 9d ]
NuklearWintr shows [Jh, As ]
heete brei wins $17160.00 USD from main pot

edit, went deep in the $13.50 KO despite losing a 42bb all in pre AA vs K7s finnish tard 3bet shove. Also used my fpps and ran decent at the sunday storm satty’s to get another $44.

ev on the day still ridiculously off – evbb/100 = 41.77, actual 0.85. winnings -22500, ev winnings +36000.

another day of donks calling my shoves with K5o and hitting. I played fewer tables and my ev bb/100 went up vs 16 tabling. I also think I made better decisions overall. Unfortunately the variance was still the same, -100k chips. Managed a 2nd place after my A8s failed to hold vs KQo which would have given me a 5:1 chip advantage. Lost a lot of 70%’s final 2 tables or at the final table. Strangely I got in with AQo 4 times as a 70% and lost all 4 to QJ, QT, A2, and Q8. Each time was for a big pot either at a final table or near the final table.

is this normal luck?

Played like 15-20 games, ran like crap, got super carddead deep – like zero pairs 99+ last 6 tables of all games.

Also every table was full of tight regs and slight winning players. Not sure if the games are beatable for as much as they were last year. I might have to lower my expectations. Going to see how the next few weeks go. I’m taking off the rest of today and most of tomorrow. Then I’ll be grinding from Jan 4th-13th about 8-10hrs/day

Went alright yesterday and today. Still running like crap deep in 2.5/180s. Got 2nd, 3rd, 4th and some other finishes today but no 1sts. Yesterday I was HU in a 2.50/180 and a guy had been 4x’ing a lot. He did his standard 4x button and I shoved 20bbs with QTs HU and he snap called with his 20bbs with 97offsuit and won. Wtf?

First 1200 games of $2.50/180s I have made +$1.26/game for about a 50% roi. Really hoping I can move up soon. I feel like I just need to hit a 1st or 2nd in a 3r180 or 8/180 to move up.

Well I forgot to update my last day of playing before taking off for the holidays. I ended up winning a few $2.50/180s. I’m feeling comfortable with the $2.50/180s now and can’t wait to move up to the 3r180s.

I checked the stats of a lot of “regs” for the 3.5r180s and I think most only have an roi of about 10-20%. This was rather shocking to me. I filtered the stats for 3 rebuys. Because I assume all regs are in for $3.50+$3.19+$3.19 automatically every game, plus an average of 1 more $3.19 rebuy. So the total entry is $13.07. Some regs have played over 5000 $3.5r180s and only have an roi of 10%?!? Wow, they are definitely doing something wrong. $3-4 per game or an roi of 25-40% should be easy to achieve.

Goal for January is to play at least 500 games/week. As long as I do that, my roll should be over 5k. Likely it will be close to 7500 which will allow me to cashout a bit and start grinding 3.5r180s, 7/180s, and 15/180s every day.

So today I had a nice 35,000 stack going right near the money bubble when I get AA. I raise to 4,000 at 800/1,600 blinds and a fish goes all in for 8,000. I call and he turns over K-3offsuit… what the fuck? Why would you go all-in with that near the money bubble? OK….. flop K-T-3.. and I don’t win. So he wins his 11%, oh well I still have a nice stack. Same fish open raises 3x in first position and I have QQ in the big blind. I go all in, fish SNAP CALLS with A6 suited and wins for another 20k chips. I’m down to 8k now. I get KQ and go all in, same fish has 33 and wins. Odds of me losing an 89%, then a 70%, then a 48% to the same fish in a row? Oh, about 1 in 65. Thanks pokerstars. I then proceed to lose two more tourneys in the money or near money in virtually the same fashion. Yet, I only lost about $40 today in 50 tournaments. If I could just have “normal” luck I’d be killing the games. If I had above average luck I would be winning $300/day easily.

Can’t believe how many times I made a final table and ran into AA/KK/QQ/AK and didn’t suckout. That, or just losing a coinflip, or even worse shoving 7bbs utg with A7s and utg+1 SNAP CALLING KJo with slightly more chips than me 8 handed and sucking out.

Today I got 8th or 9th 6 times and 4th twice. Also finished a bunch 10th-18th.

After 1,009 $2.50/180s I have made +$1,244 with an average profit of +$1.23 per game. Amazingly, I feel that my luck has been atrocious in these games. According to hold em manager I should have won 50% more chips! Just mind-boggling that I can have such a high ROI whilst running so horrendously. Poker is truly a sick game with a lot of variance.

There’s so many degens on pokerstars that limp/call off their whole stacks with T9 offsuit and other rubbish. Today I pushed with QJs in middle position for a standard 10 bbs and the guy on my immediate left SNAP CALLS off his 10bb stack with Q3 suited and obviously wins. Players like this totally baffle me because there is no logic to their play. They will randomly just gamble on any hand, but then if they win play tight for a while, then limp K8s and call off their stack again.

Goal is play 200 games between friday and saturday. Currently making $1.50/game at the $2.50/180s.

got a 1st and 2nd in 2.50/180s. I’m going to take a few more shots at 3.50r180s tomorrow.

Today I had KK run into AA at 3 separate final tables. That doesn’t seem like normal luck to me.