Adam Winter

Well I forgot to update my last day of playing before taking off for the holidays. I ended up winning a few $2.50/180s. I’m feeling comfortable with the $2.50/180s now and can’t wait to move up to the 3r180s.

I checked the stats of a lot of “regs” for the 3.5r180s and I think most only have an roi of about 10-20%. This was rather shocking to me. I filtered the stats for 3 rebuys. Because I assume all regs are in for $3.50+$3.19+$3.19 automatically every game, plus an average of 1 more $3.19 rebuy. So the total entry is $13.07. Some regs have played over 5000 $3.5r180s and only have an roi of 10%?!? Wow, they are definitely doing something wrong. $3-4 per game or an roi of 25-40% should be easy to achieve.

Goal for January is to play at least 500 games/week. As long as I do that, my roll should be over 5k. Likely it will be close to 7500 which will allow me to cashout a bit and start grinding 3.5r180s, 7/180s, and 15/180s every day.

So today I had a nice 35,000 stack going right near the money bubble when I get AA. I raise to 4,000 at 800/1,600 blinds and a fish goes all in for 8,000. I call and he turns over K-3offsuit… what the fuck? Why would you go all-in with that near the money bubble? OK….. flop K-T-3.. and I don’t win. So he wins his 11%, oh well I still have a nice stack. Same fish open raises 3x in first position and I have QQ in the big blind. I go all in, fish SNAP CALLS with A6 suited and wins for another 20k chips. I’m down to 8k now. I get KQ and go all in, same fish has 33 and wins. Odds of me losing an 89%, then a 70%, then a 48% to the same fish in a row? Oh, about 1 in 65. Thanks pokerstars. I then proceed to lose two more tourneys in the money or near money in virtually the same fashion. Yet, I only lost about $40 today in 50 tournaments. If I could just have “normal” luck I’d be killing the games. If I had above average luck I would be winning $300/day easily.

Can’t believe how many times I made a final table and ran into AA/KK/QQ/AK and didn’t suckout. That, or just losing a coinflip, or even worse shoving 7bbs utg with A7s and utg+1 SNAP CALLING KJo with slightly more chips than me 8 handed and sucking out.

Today I got 8th or 9th 6 times and 4th twice. Also finished a bunch 10th-18th.

After 1,009 $2.50/180s I have made +$1,244 with an average profit of +$1.23 per game. Amazingly, I feel that my luck has been atrocious in these games. According to hold em manager I should have won 50% more chips! Just mind-boggling that I can have such a high ROI whilst running so horrendously. Poker is truly a sick game with a lot of variance.

There’s so many degens on pokerstars that limp/call off their whole stacks with T9 offsuit and other rubbish. Today I pushed with QJs in middle position for a standard 10 bbs and the guy on my immediate left SNAP CALLS off his 10bb stack with Q3 suited and obviously wins. Players like this totally baffle me because there is no logic to their play. They will randomly just gamble on any hand, but then if they win play tight for a while, then limp K8s and call off their stack again.

Goal is play 200 games between friday and saturday. Currently making $1.50/game at the $2.50/180s.

got a 1st and 2nd in 2.50/180s. I’m going to take a few more shots at 3.50r180s tomorrow.

Today I had KK run into AA at 3 separate final tables. That doesn’t seem like normal luck to me.

So I just finished 2nd in a 2.50/180 after losing all of the following %’s heads up in a row, each of which would have gotten me 1st:

41%
71%
31%
42%
66%

Odds of losing all 5 in a row: 2.32% awesome

more run-bad, get deep in tournaments and just lose in totally standard spots. Virtually nothing I can do differently. I keep making standard all-in plays with solid hands and running into monsters continuously. That or just losing flips / taking beats. Very frustrating breakeven stretch I’m on.

So many players limp/call off their stacks with QJ and other rubbish cards it’s really amazing.

I’ve bubbled so many donkaments because some guy decides to limp/call KJo or JTo, or call my early position shove with A6o and they always miraculously hit. I think I ended up with a bunch of 6ths-12ths today. ev still way below expectation.

Finished around 750th out of 27,000 in the big$11 tourney today, and bubbled the $10 KO HU turbo. Bubbled or ran deep in some other tourneys. Felt like I played well for the most part, but not without mistakes. Also lost AA to AJo all in preflop for a 60bb pot deep in the big$11 to a guy who had already won $8k in a tournament that day. Must be nice to run so good…

Well I’m officially running ultra-bad, but somehow still winning. My ev bb/100 hands this week is about 20 over 20,000 hands, but my actual bb/100 was 14.25. Meaning I am getting my chips in with best hand but not winning as much as I should. Pretty frustrating, but I checked my yearly totals for 100k hands I am right where I should be. I guess I was running a bit hot earlier in the year.

Anyways, I won 2 $2.50/180s today and then ran bad in everything else.

Games played this week: 427

I’m going to have to start running better soon to hit my goals.

Ended the day with some strong finishes in 2.50/180s getting a 1st, two 3rds, and a 4th. I made some mistakes throughout the day including bad folds when it didn’t make sense to fold and some bad shoves when they didn’t make sense.

My profit/game in $2.50/180s is $1.80/game which is very high over 550 games. I think $1.50/game is probably more realistic long term.